PAKISTAN - KEY QUESTIONS

by David Blair, Telegraph



















Why has President Pervez Musharraf suspended the constitution?

Because Pakistan's Supreme Court was about to declare his rule illegal. Last month, Gen Musharraf was re-elected as president by Pakistan's National Assembly and the provincial legislatures. But this happened while he was still commander of the army. Under the constitution, no one can combine the offices of president and army chief. Although Gen Musharraf had promised to resign as head of the army by Nov 15, the Supreme Court was on the point of declaring his re-election illegal.

What has Gen Musharraf gained by imposing emergency rule?

The power to sack the Supreme Court judges who were on the verge of ruling against him. Gen Musharraf has already dismissed the Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry. He will now clear out the Supreme Court and appoint a new bench of judges in the hope that they will legalise his rule. If the justices oblige, Gen Musharraf might end the state of emergency quite soon.

What about the forthcoming elections?

In theory, Pakistan must hold parliamentary elections by January. Now that the constitution has been suspended, everything has been thrown into doubt. If the period of emergency rule is brief, the polls may still happen though not for at least a year.

What has been the reaction inside Pakistan?

Gen Musharraf has moved quickly against his opponents, carrying out hundreds of pre-emptive arrests. Independent television channels have been shut down. Although newspapers are still publishing, they face tight controls. Gen Musharraf is clearly trying to head off any popular unrest.

Will this succeed?

The key question is whether the two largest opposition movements will call mass protests against emergency rule. These are Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of six fundamentalist parties. Ms Bhutto was on the verge of concluding a power-sharing deal with Gen Musharraf. She has not been placed under arrest yet. Although she has condemned emergency rule, she has so far refrained from calling her supporters on to the streets. Presumably Ms Bhutto still hopes to share power with Gen Musharraf. As for the MMA, they have also failed to call any protests, perhaps hoping for some reward from the regime.

Is this good news for Gen Musharraf?

Yes. As long as the PPP and the MMA are both neutralised, there is unlikely to be a general uprising on a scale that could threaten his grip on power.

What about the Islamist militants?

They have grown bolder in recent months, spreading from their strongholds in the anarchic tribal areas lining the frontier with Afghanistan and moving deeper into Pakistan. Most recently, militants have taken over enclaves of the Swat Valley, once a tourist attraction. They will use the imposition of emergency rule as a rallying cry against Gen Musharraf. This will be of great concern to Britain and America, who view Pakistan as the linchpin of the war on terrorism.

What about the army?

This is the most crucial question of all. If Gen Musharraf retains the army's loyalty, he can get away with almost anything. He will almost certainly break his promise to resign as army chief. But if emergency rule drags on and fails to quell the unrest, the army may also become restive. Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the army's deputy commander, is a pivotal figure. If anyone decides to lead a coup against Gen Musharraf, it will be him.

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